科技泡沫：熱潮背後是機會還是炒作？教你識破下一個投資陷阱

 

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哲學家黑格爾曾說：「人類從歷史中學到的唯一教訓，就是人類沒有從歷史中吸取任何教訓。」在 AI 浪潮隨著股市行情一波波上漲之際，矽谷的科技巨頭們卻大舉裁員與凍結人事，讓美國資訊科系畢業生面臨前所未有的就業危機。對比 2021 年時，矽谷工程師擁有令人稱羨的年薪與大筆分紅，如今盛況已不可同日而語。產業趨勢發生如此大幅度的反轉，當然有數不清的成因，但這本《科技泡沫》裡面提到的問題，或許正是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草。

Google、亞馬遜、臉書和 Netflix，在網際網路產業中，有太多耀眼的科技公司由原本的默默無聞，蛻變成富可敵國的跨國企業，同時也讓許多早期投資人賺得盆滿鉢滿。因此，創業投資（簡稱創投）在美國投資產業中一直是撐起半邊天的熱門項目，而科技創業也成為許多青年才俊前赴後繼的職涯選項。然而，本書作者伊曼紐．馬喬里卻明確指出，現今創投產業與新創公司之間存在著日益嚴重的弊病，造就了無數的資源錯置與財務損失。

2000 年爆發網路泡沫時，那斯達克股市大跌 75%，矽谷裁員 20 萬人。此後 20 多年間，又陸續發生許多經濟危機，以美國為首的各國政府，像老狗玩不出新把戲般，只能靠大量印鈔救市。不論是量化寬鬆還是日本行之有年的零利率政策，都是助長泡沫的貨幣政策。1998 年亞洲金融風暴助長了網路泡沫，網路泡沫又助長了 2008 年金融海嘯；而 2019 年因新冠疫情產生的量化寬鬆，正是促成矽谷新創公司如雨後春筍般湧現的背後活水，但過多的資金也導致亂象叢生。

新創公司追求爆炸式成長，最後多半演變成一種吹牛比賽，在經營公司時忽視顯而易見的風險，更仰賴三種類型的奇蹟來促成自身的成功：

市場奇蹟：消費者行為突然改變（例如：突然願意為原本免費的服務付費）。

技術奇蹟：宣稱將推出目前做不到、未來也尚不知如何達成的技術或服務（例如《惡血》一書所描述的情節）。

人才奇蹟：深信只要聚集足夠的人才與頂尖人物，就能做出前所未有的商業成果（目前 AI 產業的投資氛圍恰好類似於此）。

原本創投資金會採分批投入的種子輪方式，從小額資金開始嘗試，當新創公司逐步證明自身價值後，才漸進式投入更多資金以降低風險。然而，在資金氾濫的大環境下，亂槍打鳥的投資卻變成了有心人士蓄意欺騙的溫床。

跑馬圈地是中國大陸網路產業最常採用的競爭手法，利用龐大的資金補貼搶占目標市場的高市占率，隨之而來的是連年巨額虧損。但創投公司非常吃這一套，畢竟資金來源源源不絕，只差一個能把故事講好的對象。其背後的投資邏輯是：只要有足夠的耐心與資本，等到新創公司達到足夠的規模，總有一天會帶來鉅額獲利來彌補先前的損失。

然而事實上，這些燒錢的新創公司根本沒有打造出超額補貼以外的護城河。一旦有其他資本雄厚的公司意圖投入同一市場，就會影響原本預估的獲利，爭相削價競爭便演變成深不見底的紅海市場。在網路產業中，真正算得上護城河的經營優勢，除了網絡效應（適用於社群網站、電商平台）之外，就是轉換成本（適用於手機與電子裝置）；至於規模經濟、商業模式與先行者優勢，都不是可以長久依賴的靠山。這種護城河的幻覺包含了「十倍」的迷思、「規模」的迷思與「品牌」的迷思。

其實作者著手撰寫本書，源於他在新創公司任職時發現的奇怪現象：科技業在資金過剩的情況下出現招募狂潮，以優渥的福利與薪水，搶占市場上能找到的所有資訊工程師。然而，許多新創公司甚至是矽谷科技巨頭，根本沒有足夠的任務分配給這些超額徵聘的人力。這導致許多人只好裝忙，或是把原本簡單的工作拆解細化，讓每個人手上都有事可做。而敏捷開發的風行也帶來了另一種浪費工時的反效果—墨守成規地要求每天開會，卻沒有將時間花在真正的開發工作上，反而讓許多想混水摸魚的工程師樂得輕鬆。

《科技泡沫》是一本難得一見的好書，鞭闢入裡地點出前幾年網路產業中的種種亂象。我認為最近矽谷幾次的大規模裁員，表面上是 AI 工具確實帶來了效率提升、降低了企業的人力成本；但實際上，可能是這些大公司借題發揮，想利用 AI 當作擋箭牌，在利率上升、零成本資金消逝之際，趕緊修正先前過於樂觀的擴張策略，回歸理性的營運步調。

The philosopher Hegel once said, "The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." While AI trends keep pushing stock markets higher, tech giants in Silicon Valley are cutting jobs and freezing hiring. This has created an unprecedented job crisis for computer science graduates in the U.S. Compared to 2021, when Silicon Valley engineers enjoyed enviable salaries and big bonuses, today's situation is completely different. There are countless reasons for such a big shift in industry trends. However, the issues mentioned in the book The Tech Bubble might be the straw that broke the camel's back.

In the internet industry, bright tech companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix grew from unknown startups into super-rich multinational corporations. At the same time, early investors made huge profits. Because of this, "venture capital" (VC) has long been a major part of the U.S. investment industry, and starting a tech company became a popular career path for many talented young people. However, the book's author, Emmanuel Marot, clearly points out that growing problems between today's VC industry and startups have caused wasted resources and massive financial losses.

When the "dot-com bubble" burst in 2000, the Nasdaq dropped 75%, and Silicon Valley cut 20,000 jobs. Over the next 20 years, more economic crises followed. Governments led by the U.S. seemed to have no new tricks and could only print large amounts of money to save the market. Whether it was "quantitative easing" (QE) or Japan's long-standing "zero-interest-rate policy," these monetary policies all fueled economic bubbles. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis helped create the dot-com bubble, which then contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis. Similarly, the QE policy during the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic fueled the rapid growth of Silicon Valley startups—though too much money also led to widespread chaos.

Startups chasing explosive growth often end up in a bragging contest. They ignore obvious business risks and rely on three types of miracles to succeed:

Market Miracle: Consumer behavior changes suddenly (for example, people suddenly pay for services that used to be free).

Technology Miracle: Promising technology or services that cannot be built today and no one knows how to make in the future (like the story in the book Bad Blood).

Talent Miracle: Believing that gathering enough top talent will naturally lead to unprecedented business success (a mindset very similar to today's AI investment trend).

Normally, VC funds invest step-by-step through "seed rounds," starting small and adding more money as startups prove their value to lower risk. But in an environment flooded with cash, random investing became fertile ground for scammers.

"Land grabbing" is a favorite competitive strategy in China's internet industry. Companies use heavy money subsidies to grab market share, accepting years of huge losses. Yet, VC firms love this approach because money keeps flowing, and they just need someone who can tell a good story. The logic is simple: with enough patience and money, once a startup grows large enough, it will eventually make huge profits to cover past losses.

In reality, these cash-burning startups never built a real "moat" beyond cash subsidies. Once another rich company enters the market, expected profits drop, and price wars turn the market into a deep "red ocean." In the internet world, true moats are "network effects" (for social media and e-commerce platforms) and "switching costs" (for phones and electronics). Things like "economies of scale," "business models," and "first-mover advantage" are not reliable over time. These fake moats include the myths of "10x," "scale," and "brand."

The author wrote this book based on strange things he saw while working at a startup. Flush with excess cash, tech companies went on hiring sprees, offering high pay and great perks to snap up every engineer available. However, many startups—and even Silicon Valley giants—did not have enough work for all these hires. As a result, many employees pretended to be busy or broke simple tasks into tiny steps so everyone had something to do. The popular "Agile development" method also backfired by wasting work hours—forcing daily meetings instead of real coding work, allowing lazy engineers to slide by easily.

The Tech Bubble is a rare and great book that clearly explains the chaos in the internet industry over recent years. In my view, the recent wave of tech layoffs may seem like AI tools are boosting efficiency and cutting labor costs. In reality, large companies may just be using AI as an excuse. As interest rates rise and free money disappears, they are rushing to fix their over-optimistic expansion strategies and return to sensible business operations.

生活科學大哉問

 

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大語言模型走入大眾的視野也不過短短二、三年，已經讓許多學生、上班族習以為常地每天和 AI 互動對談。仔細想想人類的適應力真的很強，不論是什麼尖端科技製造而成的產品或服務，在不瞭解背後原理的情況下，人們依舊能運用自如地享受便利性。《生活科學大哉問》一書，便是介紹了許多你我日常生活中已經視為文明社會必需品的科技產物，深入瞭解後會感受到，人們能十指不沾陽春水地過日子，都是受惠於一代代先人日積月累下發明的成果。

像是沖水馬桶利用虹吸原理，不靠電力而善用水位的落差和重力，便有效率地清除排泄物，是造福全人類的偉大發明。微波爐則是運用磁控管來操作電場方向，讓容易受影響的水分子產生震動，進而產生熱能用來加熱食物。在介紹咖啡的文章中，學到咖啡一旦磨成粉就會開始劣化，所以沖泡前再磨才是講究的做法；過細的咖啡粉反而會萃取出雜質，讓咖啡風味變差。雖然看過好幾次解說飛機飛行的原理，但還是不明白機翼形狀如何讓氣流產生足夠的升力讓飛機起飛，據說學術圈也常常講不清楚，只能說飛行器的發明是種實證科學吧。

而白領上班族常看到的文具用品，像是3M便利貼是改變膠水型態成圓球狀，產生好黏又好撕的效果。魔術擦擦筆則是以使用感溫變色墨水，來讓墨水遇熱變成透明；有趣的是，在極低溫下（零下 20 度），擦擦筆的墨水會恢復到有顏色的狀態，這點小知識很有用！全視線眼鏡就是光致變色鏡片，但是如果配戴了無抗紫外線（UV）功能的太陽眼鏡，人眼的瞳孔多了遮蔽、少了刺眼的陽光照射而放大，反而會傷害視網膜，買太陽眼鏡時記得多看一下標籤。摩天大樓的玻璃帷幕，製造方法和鏡子一樣，是在玻璃裡面加上一層金屬用來反射光線；當金屬層薄到恰到好處的厚度，就會隔熱又透出些許的光線。夜間因為室內光線強於室外，所以室內反射光會強於外面，造成我們只會看到自己的倒影，但從外面卻可以清楚地看到屋內。

車輛的前擋風玻璃都是夾層玻璃（膠合玻璃），中間夾著特殊膠膜，即使用擊破器也打不碎，所以也被當作防盜玻璃。而側面的車窗則是安裝強化玻璃，雖然強度比一般玻璃強上 3 到 4 倍，卻可以針對特定一點輕易地敲破。現代人在夏天幾乎離不開的冷氣機，是利用空氣壓縮會變熱、膨脹會變冷的熱泵原理，將冷媒當作導體不斷在室外機和室內循環，讓我們享受舒適的溫度，而電冰箱也是用一樣的技術做出來的。一般認為，水的溫度不會超過 100 度，因為會變成水蒸氣。然而水波爐就是利用過熱水蒸氣的高溫，來達成將食物加熱到 200 到 300 度的高溫，食物的水分會因此蒸發而變得酥脆。我們之所以會認為月亮會一直跟著我們的背後走，其實只是因為它體積相當大，同時又距離我們非常遠，所以不管我們怎麼移動，都能看到它以同樣的大小和方向在那裡，因而誤以為它有在移動尾隨我們。

《生活科學大哉問》是一本充滿著實用科學知識的小書，每個主題的內文都只有四頁，但內容從物理、化學到資訊技術無所不包，很多說明也不是能一看就懂，相當有深度。不過看這樣的讀物，也不用給自己太大的壓力，就挑選自己感興趣的主題翻閱，記得有趣的小知識，以後和朋友談天時當個小聰明，倒也就有所回報了～

Large language models came into the public eye only two or three years ago, but they have already become a daily habit for many students and office workers chatting with AI. When you think about it, human adaptability is truly amazing. No matter what kind of advanced technology creates a product or service, people can easily use it and enjoy its convenience without knowing how it works. The book Everyday Science Secrets introduces many tech inventions that we see as daily necessities in modern society. When you look deeper, you realize that living such a comfortable life is all thanks to the achievements of past generations over time.

For example, flush toilets use the "siphon principle." They don't need electricity and simply use water level differences and gravity to clean away waste efficiently, making it a great invention for humanity. Microwaves use magnetrons to control electric fields. This makes water molecules vibrate and generate heat to warm up food. In the part about coffee, I learned that coffee beans start to lose quality as soon as they are ground into powder. That is why grinding right before brewing is the best way. Coffee ground too fine will extract unwanted flavors and ruin the taste. Also, although I have seen explanations of how airplanes fly many times, I still don't understand how wing shapes create enough lift for a plane to take off. It is said that even experts struggle to explain it clearly, so maybe airplane invention is just a kind of "practical science."

Common stationery items for office workers also have cool science behind them. For instance, 3M Post-it notes use glue shaped into tiny spheres, making them easy to stick and peel off. Frixion erasable pens use heat-sensitive ink that turns clear when heated. Interestingly, at super cold temperatures (minus 20 degrees Celsius), the ink color comes back. This fun fact is very useful! Transitions lenses are photochromic lenses. However, if you wear sunglasses without UV protection, your pupils will dilate because of the darker view. This can actually damage your retina, so always check the label when buying sunglasses. The glass curtain walls of skyscrapers are made like mirrors by adding a thin metal layer inside the glass to reflect light. When the metal layer is just the right thickness, it blocks heat while letting a little light through. At night, indoor light is brighter than outdoor light, so the reflection inside is stronger. As a result, we can only see our own reflection, but people outside can see inside clearly.

Car windshields are made of laminated glass with a special plastic layer in the middle. They won't break easily even with a hammer, so they are also used as anti-theft glass. On the other hand, side windows use tempered glass. Although it is 3 to 4 times stronger than regular glass, it can easily shatter if you hit a specific corner. Air conditioners, which are essential in summer, use the "heat pump" principle—air gets hot when compressed and cold when expanded. They use refrigerant to move heat between indoor and outdoor units to keep us comfortable. Refrigerators are made using the same technology. People usually think water temperature cannot go over 100 degrees Celsius because it turns into steam. However, superheated steam ovens use high-temperature steam to heat food up to 200 to 300 degrees, evaporating moisture to make food crispy. Finally, we feel like the moon is following us simply because it is huge and extremely far away. No matter how we move, we see it at the same size and direction, so we mistakenly think it is following behind us.

Everyday Science Secrets is a small book full of practical science knowledge. Each topic is only four pages long, but it covers everything from physics and chemistry to IT. Many explanations take time to understand and have real depth. However, you don't need to feel stressed when reading it. Just pick topics you find interesting, remember a few fun facts, and share them with friends later to sound smart—that is already a great reward!

巴黎墓園的祕密生活──為逝者按讚！網路爆紅生命守門人，帶你體驗法國「拉雪茲神父公墓」多樣迷人的生態，在自然景致與逝者銘言間體悟生命美好

 

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我觀察到台灣有個都市規劃上的矛盾而深感困惑：無論是哪任市長就任，總是把土地開發當成執政成績而大力推動，將原本綠意盎然的農田、林地，換成一座座鋼筋水泥打造的商辦、運動場、活動中心。附近的居民也會因此歡欣鼓舞地大喊德政，期望居住地的房價能因此一飛衝天。然而真正昂貴的精華地段，總是離不開綠地公園和樹蔭環繞，捨近求遠，吾未見其明也。

離題了。《巴黎墓園的秘密生活》是一本相當複雜而特異的書，它是由任職於巴黎市公墓部門的班諾瓦．加洛所著。主題是介紹位於巴黎市中心的拉雪茲神父公墓的點點滴滴，卻不是行禮如儀的生硬作品。由於法國政府無意間的一項政策調整，決議不再於公墓中施作除草劑等人工農藥，促成園區內草木欣欣向榮，儼然成為另一座自然公園，優良的生態裡甚至孕育出狐狸家族。讓身為守墓人的作者，在疫情封城期間於園內偶遇，之後也轉化成書中數張珍貴的照片。

不論是什麼國家，死亡、喪禮和墓園總是帶來負面和不吉利的印象。然而出身在殯葬業家庭的作者，卻因為從小的耳濡目染而沒有這樣的包袱，因而能帶著單純、直覺的眼光，欣賞甚至享受在墓園工作、獨處的時光。帶著真切的心，站在喪家的角度來處理安葬事項，並管理廣大而複雜的公墓機關，是他的日常工作。讀者未必會有機會去遊訪法國，更別說特地跑去法國公墓參觀，但一個如此管理得當、有如都市中綠洲般的林地空間，真的讓人傾倒。對比台灣都市逐年消失的公園樹木和被高樓阻擋的天際線，只能發出一聲嘆息。

I observed a strange problem in Taiwan's city planning and felt very confused. No matter who becomes the mayor, they always push land development as a major achievement. They turn green farmland and woods into concrete office buildings, sports venues, and community centers. Nearby residents happily celebrate this as a great policy, hoping their property values will skyrocket. However, truly expensive prime areas are always surrounded by green parks and shade trees. Looking for something far away while ignoring what's right in front of us really makes no sense to me.

Anyway, back to the point. The Secret Life of Paris Cemetery is a very unique and interesting book. It was written by Benoît Gallot, who works for the Paris cemetery department. The book introduces Père Lachaise Cemetery in the center of Paris, but it is not a boring or formal work. Thanks to a simple policy change by the French government—deciding to stop using chemical weed killers in the cemetery—the plants grew wildly, turning it into a natural park. The great environment even brought a family of foxes. The author, as a gravedigger, met them during the pandemic lockdown and captured them in several precious photos in the book.

In almost every country, death, funerals, and cemeteries bring negative and unlucky feelings. However, coming from a funeral family, the author grew up around these things and did not carry such a burden. Because of this, he could enjoy working and spending time alone in the cemetery with a simple and clear mind. Caring for grieving families with a sincere heart and managing a large, complex cemetery is his daily life. Readers may not have the chance to visit France, let alone visit a French cemetery, but such a well-managed green oasis in the city is truly impressive. Comparing it with Taiwan's cities, where trees are disappearing and tall buildings block the skyline, I can only sigh.